Special to Ontario Construction News
Residential housing starts in the GTA and Greater Golden Horseshoe were down sharply over the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous three years while industry job losses continue to mount, according to a report done for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario
“We are staring into the abyss,” says RESCON president Richard Lyall. “The new home market has tanked. It is a particularly dark time for those who work in residential construction. There have been significant job losses across the board. Projects are being shelved, and this will have a significant trickle-down effect on Ontario’s economy.”
The report by the Missing Middle Initiative at the University of Ottawa is based on data obtained from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Altus Group. The Initiative produces research, a newsletter, videos and a podcast on the barriers preventing young Canadians and new families from entering the middle class.
It’s the second report commissioned by residential builders’ association RESCON that examines the state of the housing crisis. The first was an analysis released in September that looked at the first six months of 2025.
In both reports, researchers examined 34 municipalities across nine separate metro areas in the GTA and GGH and assessed the state of housing sales and construction, and the effects on industry employment.
The latest analysis shows housing starts were down 34 per cent in the municipalities over the first three quarters of 2025, relative to the January-to-September periods in 2021-24. Condo apartment starts were down 51 per cent in 2025 relative to the same earlier time periods. On the positive side, purpose-built rental starts were up 42 per cent over the same periods.
The new report also graded the municipalities in five categories related to housing starts and sales. Of the 34 municipalities, 17 received an F, nine received a D, and eight other municipalities received a C or higher. Toronto, Mississauga and Brampton all scored an F.
Average grades have improved slightly from the earlier report when 22 received an F, but researchers anticipate average grades to fall in future reports.
The analysis estimates that the reduction in housing starts over the first nine months of this year translates into 35,377 fewer person-years of employment, compared to the same period in the previous three years.
The research comes as both the federal and Ontario governments have committed to raising housing starts.
